AUTOMATED ECONOMY LAB / 01

What remains
when work disappears?

Trace today's price through labor, capital, matter, land, and energy—then recursively replace automatable work to expose a physical and economic cost floor.

THE RULE

Replace human work. Expand machine capital. Never replace physics.

01

PREMIUM TEA / 100 G POUCH

Automation-adjusted resource floor

$1.10–$5.89$18.00 input · $2.62 base · $200 / MWh · robot 1× · depth 5
BASE FLOOR VS CURRENT85% LOWER

Base compares the evaluated floor with the editable input; low and high endpoints propagate independently.

02 / COMPOSITION

See what shrinks. See what survives.

A labor-sensitive product with scarce land, careful picking, processing, packaging, and retail layers.

TODAY'S PRICE$18.00
MODELED FLOOR$2.62
LaborCapitalEnergyMaterialsLand / scarcityMarginTax / policy
SCENARIO RANGE$1.10–$5.89

Interval arithmetic across low/base/high inputs

EVIDENCE COVERAGE98%

Share touching at least one observed or derived source

DEPTH RESIDUALS10

Branches bounded instead of silently becoming zero

03 / ASSUMPTIONS LAB

Perturb the scenario.
Re-evaluate every branch.

Logarithmic energy controls span three orders of magnitude. Depth and boundary switches are evaluated by the same typed graph used in the ledger and comparison.

04 / RECURSIVE TRACE

Every change is inspectable.

Open a branch to see the formula, evidence class, and recursive replacement tree.

Retail, brand & channel marginInstitutional and commercial value in today's shelf price; not a physical production input.Margin$6.20$0.00–$0.00
TREATMENT

Retail, brand & channel margin: excluded from the physical production floor

EVIDENCEassumptionobserved
Retail handling & fulfillment laborReceiving, stocking, order handling, and customer fulfillment.Labor$2.605.50¢–$0.40
TREATMENT

Robot operating electricity: kWh × robot-energy factor × $200/MWh ÷ 1,000

EVIDENCEassumptionobserved

2 branches reached the selected depth and became a visible residual range.

BECOMES

  1. Equivalent automated taskThe human task is replaced by operating electricity and a per-unit share of machine capital.
    Depth residual5.50¢–$0.40
    1. Robot operating electricityTask energy after converting human task time into equivalent machine runtime.
      Energy1.00¢–6.00¢
    2. Robot capital allocationA per-product share of the machine's embodied inputs, lifetime, and utilization.
      Depth residual4.50¢–$0.34
      1. Embodied materials & scarce inputsMetals, electronics, and other terminal material residuals allocated to one product unit.
        Materials2.00¢–$0.15
      2. Fabrication energyAllocated energy required to fabricate the automation equipment.
        Energy1.60¢–$0.10
      3. Automated maintenanceA fourth-level expansion for service energy and tooling wear.
        Depth residual0.90¢–9.20¢
        1. Maintenance electricityDiagnostics, movement, cleaning, and servicing energy allocated per unit.Depth 5 cutoff · bounded residual retained
          Depth residual0.40¢–3.20¢
        2. Tooling wearConsumable physical wear that does not vanish with labor automation.Depth 5 cutoff · bounded residual retained
          Depth residual0.50¢–6.00¢
Cultivation & selective picking laborThe dexterous, quality-sensitive field work at the center of the thesis.Labor$3.20$0.15–$1.11
TREATMENT

Robot operating electricity: kWh × robot-energy factor × $200/MWh ÷ 1,000

EVIDENCEassumptionobserved

2 branches reached the selected depth and became a visible residual range.

BECOMES

  1. Equivalent automated taskThe human task is replaced by operating electricity and a per-unit share of machine capital.
    Depth residual$0.15–$1.11
    1. Robot operating electricityTask energy after converting human task time into equivalent machine runtime.
      Energy5.00¢–$0.28
    2. Robot capital allocationA per-product share of the machine's embodied inputs, lifetime, and utilization.
      Depth residual$0.10–$0.83
      1. Embodied materials & scarce inputsMetals, electronics, and other terminal material residuals allocated to one product unit.
        Materials5.00¢–$0.42
      2. Fabrication energyAllocated energy required to fabricate the automation equipment.
        Energy3.60¢–$0.26
      3. Automated maintenanceA fourth-level expansion for service energy and tooling wear.
        Depth residual1.50¢–$0.15
        1. Maintenance electricityDiagnostics, movement, cleaning, and servicing energy allocated per unit.Depth 5 cutoff · bounded residual retained
          Depth residual1.00¢–9.00¢
        2. Tooling wearConsumable physical wear that does not vanish with labor automation.Depth 5 cutoff · bounded residual retained
          Depth residual0.50¢–6.00¢
Withering, rolling, drying & sorting energyDirect thermal and electrical process energy remains after labor automation.Energy$1.10$0.22–$0.64
TREATMENT

Withering, rolling, drying & sorting energy: physical kWh × $200/MWh ÷ 1,000

EVIDENCEassumptionobserved
Packaging line & pouch conversionPackaging capital is expanded into embodied materials, fabrication energy, and automated service.Capital$1.70$0.22–$1.32
TREATMENT

Asset materials: explicit scarcity residual retained

EVIDENCEassumptionderived

3 branches reached the selected depth and became a visible residual range.

BECOMES

  1. Expanded productive assetThe asset's sticker cost is replaced with allocated materials, fabrication energy, and automated upkeep.
    Depth residual$0.22–$1.32
    1. Asset materialsAllocated physical materials and scarce inputs per product unit.
      Materials$0.12–$0.65
    2. Asset fabrication energyEmbodied manufacturing energy allocated across useful output.
      Energy7.00¢–$0.36
    3. Equivalent automated taskThe human task is replaced by operating electricity and a per-unit share of machine capital.
      Depth residual2.90¢–$0.31
      1. Robot operating electricityTask energy after converting human task time into equivalent machine runtime.
        Energy0.60¢–5.60¢
      2. Robot capital allocationA per-product share of the machine's embodied inputs, lifetime, and utilization.
        Depth residual2.30¢–$0.25
        1. Embodied materials & scarce inputsMetals, electronics, and other terminal material residuals allocated to one product unit.Depth 5 cutoff · bounded residual retained
          Depth residual1.00¢–$0.11
        2. Fabrication energyAllocated energy required to fabricate the automation equipment.Depth 5 cutoff · bounded residual retained
          Depth residual0.60¢–6.00¢
        3. Automated maintenanceA fourth-level expansion for service energy and tooling wear.Depth 5 cutoff · bounded residual retained
          Depth residual0.70¢–8.40¢
Freight, warehousing & deliveryA mixed capital-and-labor branch treated as an automated logistics asset.Capital$1.40$0.13–$1.02
TREATMENT

Asset materials: explicit scarcity residual retained

EVIDENCEassumptionobserved

3 branches reached the selected depth and became a visible residual range.

BECOMES

  1. Expanded productive assetThe asset's sticker cost is replaced with allocated materials, fabrication energy, and automated upkeep.
    Depth residual$0.13–$1.02
    1. Asset materialsAllocated physical materials and scarce inputs per product unit.
      Materials4.00¢–$0.35
    2. Asset fabrication energyEmbodied manufacturing energy allocated across useful output.
      Energy5.00¢–$0.32
    3. Equivalent automated taskThe human task is replaced by operating electricity and a per-unit share of machine capital.
      Depth residual3.50¢–$0.35
      1. Robot operating electricityTask energy after converting human task time into equivalent machine runtime.
        Energy1.20¢–$0.10
      2. Robot capital allocationA per-product share of the machine's embodied inputs, lifetime, and utilization.
        Depth residual2.30¢–$0.25
        1. Embodied materials & scarce inputsMetals, electronics, and other terminal material residuals allocated to one product unit.Depth 5 cutoff · bounded residual retained
          Depth residual1.00¢–$0.11
        2. Fabrication energyAllocated energy required to fabricate the automation equipment.Depth 5 cutoff · bounded residual retained
          Depth residual0.60¢–6.00¢
        3. Automated maintenanceA fourth-level expansion for service energy and tooling wear.Depth 5 cutoff · bounded residual retained
          Depth residual0.70¢–8.40¢
Leaf biomass, water, and land scarcityMatter and land are not converted into joules; the model separates process energy from optional scarcity rent.Land / scarcity$1.50$0.33–$1.39
TREATMENT

Leaf biomass, water, and land scarcity: extraction and processing kWh × $/MWh ÷ 1,000

EVIDENCEassumptionobserved
Taxes & compliance allocationA policy and institutional cost shown explicitly rather than silently removed.Tax / policy$0.30$0.00–$0.00
TREATMENT

Taxes & compliance allocation: excluded from the physical production floor

EVIDENCEassumption

05 / TRANSFORMATION LEDGER

The audit surface.

Today's dollars reconcile; automated inputs stay ranged and attributable.

InputFactorTodayTreatmentAutomated rangeEvidence
Retail, brand & channel marginMargin$6.20Excluded unless toggled$0.00–$0.00assumptionobserved
Retail handling & fulfillment laborLabor$2.60Robot energy + embodied capital5.50¢–$0.40assumptionobserved
Cultivation & selective picking laborLabor$3.20Robot energy + embodied capital$0.15–$1.11assumptionobserved
Withering, rolling, drying & sorting energyEnergy$1.10Physical energy retained$0.22–$0.64assumptionobserved
Packaging line & pouch conversionCapital$1.70Expand embodied inputs$0.22–$1.32assumptionderived
Freight, warehousing & deliveryCapital$1.40Expand embodied inputs$0.13–$1.02assumptionobserved
Leaf biomass, water, and land scarcityLand / scarcity$1.50Process energy + optional scarcity$0.33–$1.39assumptionobserved
Taxes & compliance allocationTax / policy$0.30Excluded unless toggled$0.00–$0.00assumption
RECONCILED TOTAL$18.00→$1.10–$5.8910 residuals

06 / COMPARISON

Compare what remains.

Each fixture's current price is normalized to 100%. The band spans low to high and the tick marks base; either can cross today's-price line.

07 / METHOD

A typed accounting graph.
Not a price forecast.

01

Reconcile one functional unit

The current-cost children must sum to the fixture's retail price before any transformation is evaluated.

02

Replace task labor

task kWh × robot multiplier × ($/MWh ÷ 1,000) prices task-runtime and AI energy; embodied machine inputs are added separately.

03

Expand productive capital

Machine price is replaced—not double-counted—with allocated materials, fabrication energy, tooling wear, and automated service branches.

04

Keep physical and institutional boundaries explicit

Electricity prices every kWh. The robot multiplier touches only tagged task-runtime energy. Scarcity, margin, and tax remain independent switches.

05

Terminate with a bound

A replacement node at depth ≥ maximum depth, or a detected cycle, becomes a low/base/high residual. Terminal physics may end a trace earlier.

06

Propagate intervals, not probabilities

Low, base, and high endpoints add through the graph. The range is a contestable scenario envelope—not a confidence interval or seller-price prediction.

SOURCES / PROVENANCE

Observed. Derived. Assumed.

Prototype inputs are labeled by what they actually are. Click any source-backed item to inspect it.

02

observed

Food Dollar Series ↗

USDA Economic Research Service

Used to structure farm, processing, transport, and retail stages—not to claim a product-specific allocation.
03

derived

Robot task-energy envelope ↗

CostFloor synthesis from published robot specifications

Published robot power anchors the envelope; task speed and embodied-capital allocations remain editable scenario assumptions.
04

derived

Bounded recursive replacement

CostFloor method v0.1

Labor becomes operating energy plus embodied machine inputs; capital is expanded again until the selected depth.
05

derived

SEEA resource-rent boundary ↗

United Nations System of Environmental-Economic Accounting

Grounds the separation between physical processing energy and land or natural-resource scarcity rent.
06

observed

USEEIO technical content ↗

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

A future production implementation can use sector energy intensity for unresolved frontier nodes; this MVP shows bounded residuals instead.
07

assumption

Editable California shelf-price input

Hackathon demo fixture

The displayed price is a demo starting point, not a market average. Users can overwrite it before running the model.
08

observed

Tea market and production context ↗

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Used for supply-chain context. The prototype's per-unit cost split remains an editable engineering assumption.
09

assumption

Premium tea cost decomposition

CostFloor demo model

Stage shares reconcile to $18.00 and are intentionally exposed for challenge; they are not a vendor's audited bill of materials.